MLB best bets: Picks and predictions for Saturday, 5/18

Brewers vs. Astros

Saturday, May 18, 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Brewers ML (+136, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

I think Milwaukee is simply mispriced in this spot.

Let's start with the hitting. This season, the Brewers outrank the Astros in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. Not only are they the clearly superior team at the dish, but Milwaukee's bullpen also beats the Astros' relief staff in ERA and xFIP.

That just leaves the starting pitching matchup, which is Bryse Wilson against Justin Verlander. Entering this matchup, Wilson paces Verlander in both ERA and WHIP.

So, how are the Brewers underdogs? Well, Verlander's metrics are better than Wilson's, and the expected regression that is looming for Milwaukee's pitcher is larger than that of Houston's.

With that said, I would argue the gap in those two pitchers' analytics does not outweigh the fact that the Brewers are the better team both at the plate and out of the bullpen. Wilson's underlying metrics are concerning, but Verlander also ranks in the 48th percentile in xERA and seventh percentile in barrel rate.

So, at +140, it's worth taking a shot on the underdogs in this spot. That is a particularly good line that is available via FanDuel, a price that is 10-15 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.

Pick: Brewers ML (+136)